Beginner Guide: Opening, First Week and Rent

Start here for your first Steam Demo run. The plan below covers the Demo rather than a verified full-release route.

The whole game at a glance

Probably Stolen is a shopkeeper loop built around five decisions: choose a starting route, source stock, verify what you bought, sell to the right customer, and reinvest only after rent and operating costs are safe. Each day connects the shop floor to a night action, an overnight machine or animal process, and the next morning's events and visitors.

1. Start: pick a specialization and Perks, then learn the controls and identify the store's display case, phone, archive, power and sleeping bag. See Starting Specializations, Perks and Controls.
2. Source: attract sellers, visit the available shops, trade with scheduled visitors, or scavenge after closing. A cheap item is only useful when you know its tag, condition, buyer and storage cost. See Customers and Vendors and Scavenging.
3. Verify: inspect water, medicine, food stamps and other appraisal items before trusting a label. Authentication mistakes can cost money, reputation or a customer. See Appraisal and Authentication and Water Purification.
4. Sell: put stock in the display case, read the active buyer tags and budget, then bargain within a price you can actually accept. See Display Case and Buying, Selling and Bargaining.
5. Grow: use surplus cash for one production loop or a service unlock. Water, wine, machines and rats all consume time, space, power or feed before they create saleable stock. See Water Trading, Winemaking, Machines and Power and Animals and Rats.
6. Survive: reserve rent, respond to events, track evidence and treat wounds or addiction before taking another risk. Reputation can open suppliers and services, while illegal stock can create inspections and investigation progress. See Events, Security, Player Health and Reputation and Wild Services.

Choose a starting specialization

Your specialization changes the opening inventory and the first problem you can solve cheaply. It does not lock the entire run into one business, so choose the route you want to learn first and add other systems later.

• Apprentice: the flexible tutorial start, with extra Credits, Storage Bay, Household Goods and Food. Use it to learn the general store loop.
• Water Merchant: the clearest route for learning testing, containers, filters, purity labels and water buyers. Start with Water Trading and then read Water Purification.
• Rat Wrangler: starts the animal route with cages, rats and feed. It can create a supply loop, but feed, space, cleaning and disease make it a higher-maintenance opening. Read Animals and Rats first.
• Rock Bottom: a challenge opening with different constraints. Treat it as a separate route after learning rent and cash reserves; the route notes are in Specializations.
• Unavailable or in development: Junker, Fence, Hydroponic Farmer, Gunsmith and Chemist are reported unavailable in this Demo; Organ Dealer and Street Food Vendor are reported in development. Do not plan a first run around them.

Perks modify the starting budget, storage, security, scavenging or faction position. Read the Perks table before spending points, and keep the first run simple enough that you can tell which system caused a result.

A first-run roadmap

1. Day 1: follow the introduction, read the lease and calendar, place only recognizable legal stock in the display case, and note the rent countdown.
2. Days 2–3: repeat one basic buy-and-sell loop. Learn customer tags, seller signs, budgets and bargaining before buying a machine.
3. Days 3–5: choose one expansion: water tools, appraisal, a machine, wine, or rats. Buy the smallest useful setup and record what it costs to run overnight.
4. Days 5–6: check the next bill, event effects, stock condition, evidence and production output. Keep rent money liquid instead of counting unsold inventory as cash.
5. Rent day: pay the displayed bill, then expand only after the reserve survives the payment. If the run fails, use the next attempt to change one decision rather than every system at once.

How the systems connect

Commerce is the hub. Customers create demand, vendors and scavenging create supply, and the display case connects tags to buyers. Appraisal and water testing prevent bad inputs from entering the loop. Bargaining changes the margin, but the buyer's budget and category still limit the cash you can receive.

Production is an investment. Water needs containers and testing; wine needs berries, bottles, water, yeast and time; machines need power, inputs and modules; rats need cages, feed, cleaning and room for breeding. Use Module and Node Configuration when a machine is already earning its keep, not as the first purchase of a cash-starved run.

Risk changes the value of every sale. Contraband, stolen goods, drugs, contaminated water and suspicious Aug customers can create evidence or inspection risk. The Euphoria and Toxicity page covers substance effects; Black Market and Underground Exchange covers the higher-risk supply routes.

Progression comes through people and reputation. Events alter demand, NPC visits open scenario-specific opportunities, and faction reputation can unlock suppliers, referrals, favors or warnings. See People and NPC Timeline and Reputation and Wild Services. Marketplace Requests and lottery rules are present as research targets, but their complete current Demo workflows are not yet verified.

When to open the detailed guides

Use this article to decide what to learn next. Open the detailed page when you are about to commit money or risk:

• Need reliable cash: Trading, Customers and Events.
• Want a production route: Water, Wine, Machines and Modules.
• Want risky or illegal stock: Security, Black Market, Toxicity and Health.
• Want a side route: Scavenging, Rats, Wild Services and NPCs.

Opening the shop

1. Keep the intro enabled on your first run and follow the on-screen interactions.
2. Locate the display case, telephone, reputation and negotiation panels, recorder and sleeping bag. Check the rent countdown on day 1; a normal opening can show six days remaining.
3. Put sale goods in the display case and inspect their valid buyer tags. Keep tools and documents out of routine sale stock.
4. Check the calendar before opening, and read the current event. A price change affects what you should buy and which stock you should sell.
5. Keep a cash reserve for the first rent bill, power where needed, cleaning and any other services you have activated.

Customers and trading

Display buyers come early; events and scheduled customers can follow before display sellers and the random pool. A seller sign converts a random visitor rather than adding a guaranteed visitor. Read the buyer’s tags, budget and special requirements before bargaining. A high price tag alone does not produce cash.

Start with stock you can recognize and sell legally. Test suspicious water and authenticate valuable medicine before treating a seller’s label as fact. Keep receipts or notes long enough to understand a dispute. For details, use Customers and Vendors, Display Case, Buying and Bargaining and Appraisal.

A repeatable daily checklist

Time	Check	Why it matters
Before opening	Calendar, event, cash reserve, display tags and concealed stock	Avoid missing a buyer or exposing risky goods
During trading	Customer role, budget, label, condition and accepted quote	A bargain is only useful if the stock can be sold
Before sleeping	Power, machine inputs, cage feed/condition and cleaning	Overnight production and animal care need supplies
After sleeping	Autosave, output amounts, next bill and investigation progress	Catch a failed process before repeating it

Autosaving occurs after sleeping. Check inventory before a large transfer, and avoid moving every valuable item at once while testing an unfamiliar interaction.

Choose one production loop

• Water: acquire a test kit, filter and pitcher; test, process, retest, then label and sell. Water Trading explains buyers; Purification explains contaminants.
• Furnace: buy it only when scrap/ore and power are available. Module priorities differ by machine; Furnace Performance is reported not to improve production. See Machinery.
• Wine: reserve berries, a bottle, water and fermentation time. Ordinary yeast can shorten a four-day cycle to two. Wine ties up stock before it sells. See Winemaking.
• Rats: keep feed and cage repairs funded before selecting breeding stock. See Animals and Rats.

Events, security and first rent

Buy inputs during a useful surplus only if the reserve remains intact. During a shortage, check both demand and the event buyer’s budget; do not assume every customer pays a premium. Events has the reported category modifiers.

Keep contraband and hot goods separate from legal stock. The hidden compartment must be covered for its reported inspection protection. Watch both evidence and investigation progress in the Security archive; services affect them differently and scripted inspection exceptions matter. Use Security before turning a legal shop into a Black Market route.

The first rent is commonly around day 7 and about 200 Credits in a normal run. Your lease, Bad Lease, difficulty and scenario can change it. Read the bill and use First Week and Rent to plan.

Modes change the plan

Hard Mode removes retail markup and the starting rent grace period, raises some service costs and doubles rent increases. Endless Mode omits some scripted visitors and events. Adjust the plan to both your difficulty and scenario.

Additional stock and recovery routes

After closing, compare the Dumping Grounds, Jackson’s equipment shop and ration station. Bring wound treatment for scavenging. See Player Health for addiction recovery.

Use right-click sorting, mouse-wheel rotation and tool Equip actions to streamline inventory work. See Controls and Inventory for inputs and context.

First week and rent

Plan your first normal Demo week around the rent countdown. A day-1 start commonly gives six days, with the landlord around day 7. Read your lease; amounts and grace periods differ by scenario.

First-week milestones

Period	Main task	Spending boundary
Day 1	Follow intro, identify tools and sale stock, read calendar/lease	Keep rent reserve before optional machines
Days 2–3	Learn display tags, seller signs and accepted deals	Buy stock with known customers, not every cheap item
Days 4–5	Repeat the reliable loop; consider appraisal or water tools	Add one service only after its cost and tools are clear
Day 6	Inspect next bill, liquidity and production output	Avoid locking rent money into unfinished wine or a new machine
Day 7 / actual rent date	Make the needed sales and pay the landlord	Do not count unsold item value as cash

Odin can appear around day 2 and the appraisal association around day 5, depending on scenario. Endless Mode and Rock Bottom can omit scripted visitors. Missing a named customer does not automatically mean failure.

Reserve calculation

Use cash after purchase − upcoming rent − selected services − essential feed/repair/input costs as your discretionary budget. If it is negative, postpone the purchase. The reported normal-run starting rent is about 200 Credits; Bad Lease, Hard Mode and future increases invalidate a fixed 200-Credit reserve.

A Sunday merchant is reported to buy legal stock with a 15% discount. That can cover a shortfall, but compare immediate cash with a normal sale. The Supply Runner’s reported markup makes last-minute inputs expensive. Avoid depending on a specific random visitor arriving before the landlord.

Before spending on store upgrades

In-game descriptions · Demo 25382790 · reviewed 2026-10-11. Availability and full gameplay effects still need verification.

Mentor's Note: Upgrades

As the days go by, you will meet various persons of interest who will offer to upgrade your Store for a price. These upgrades can be useful, but you must be careful when managing your cash flow and keep an eye out for the next rent payment.

Sources

• In-game item descriptions and notes
• Update 049
• Complete Demo player walkthrough
• Vendors and You